Decision Analysis [PDF]

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BIRLA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY & SCIENCE, PILANI WORK INTEGRATED LEARNING PROGRAMMES Course Title



DECISION ANALYSIS



Course No(s)



MM ZG535



Credit Units



Four



Credit Model



4+0+0



Course Author



Mr. PB Venkataraman, Dr. Garima Singhal, Mr. Sunil Rengreji



Version No



Rev 1



Date



19 Aug 2015



COURSE OBJECTIVES



We make decisions every day. Some decisions are routine but some have a profound impact on our life. Gaining competency in such a vital subject is highly desirable both for personal and professional wellbeing. The objective of this course is to provide an opportunity to gain this mastery: to be able to achieve clarity of action in making any decision on which we focus our attention. TEXT BOOKS:



T1



Ronald A. Howard., Ali E. Abbas, Foundations of Decision Analysis, Pearson, 1 ed., 2015.



T2



Michael A. Roberto., The Art of Critical Decision Making, Audible.com, 2013.



T3



David C. Skinner., Introduction to Decision Analysis, Probabilistic Publishing, 3rd edition., 2009.



T4



On Making Smart Decisions, Harvard Business Review., 2013



T5



Ralph L.Keeney., Value-Focused Thinking, Harvard University Press, 1996.



T6



Robert Sapolsky., Biology and Human Behaviour., Audible.com., 2013.



T7



Dwayne Spradlin., Are You Solving the Right Problem., HBR., 2012.



T8



Alternatives: The Source of Superior Solutions., HBR., 2006



REFERENCE BOOK(S) & OTHER RESOURCES:



R1



Daniel Kahneman., Thinking, Fast and Slow., Penguin., 2011



R2



Piyanka Jain, Puneet Sharma., Behind Every Good Decision: How Anyone Can Use Business Analytics to Turn Data into Profitable Insight. Gildan Media., 2014



R3



Charles Wheelan., Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data, W. W. Norton & Company; 1 edition. 2014



LEARNING OUTCOMES:



No



Learning Outcomes



LO1



Explain the decision making process from analytical and neuroscience perspective.



LO2



Relate to the cognitive biases and interpret one’s decision objectively.



LO3



List the factors impacting decision quality and explain their influence.



LO4



Comprehend various decision analysis tools and apply them to a given situation.



LO5



EXPERIENTIAL LEARNING COMPONENTS



1. Lab work: 2. Project work: 3. Case study: 4. Work integration: 5. Design work/Field work:



Contact Hour



List of Topic Title (ref to content structure in part A)



Topic # (from content structure)



Reference



1-2



Introduction to the Course



• Course detailing • Decision notions



T1



3-4



How Do We Decide



• Neural correlates of decision process • Distinct stages of stimulus encoding and response preparation • Reaction time



T6



5-6



Conflict between intuitive and rational decision making



• Choices, decision and actions (deciding, attending and intending)



T6



7-8



Defining a Good Decision



• Common misconceptions • Elements of a good decision



T1



9-12



Decision traps



• • • • • • • • •



Anchoring Status-Quo Sunk-Cost Confirming evidence Framing Estimating & forecasting Overconfidence Prudence Recallability



T4



13-14



Decision frame



• Framing a decision • Addressing the right problem



T7



15-16



Alternatives



• The Source of Superior Solutions



T8



17-22



Values



• Value-focused thinking • Framework of value-focused thinking • Identifying & assessing objectives



T5



23-28



Information & Reasoning



• Analytics tools • Decision models



T3



29-30



Implementing decision analysis models



• Role of ethics in decision making • Ethical distinctions • Ethical situations



T1



31-32



Revision



• Comprehensive revision



Lecture slides.



CASE STUDIES: DETAILED PLAN



Case study No



Case study Objective



Case study Sheet Access URL



1 2



EVALUATION SCHEME



Evaluation Component



Name (Quiz, Lab, Project, Mid term exam, End semester exam, etc)



Type (Open book, Closed book, Online, etc.)



Weight



Duration



Day, Date, Session, Time



EC – 1



Assignment 1, 2



Online



15%



10 days



TBA



EC - 2



Mid-sem



Closed book



35%



TBA



EC - 3



Comprehensive



Open book



50%



TBA