Final Test [PDF]

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No 1 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010



Mechanical 3368 3757 4213 4316 3737 4938



Electronic 20998 21109 21679 21784 17986 21177



a. Plot time series 25000



20000



15000



10000



5000



0 1



2



3



b. Describe the trend Trend data menunjukan nilai positif. c. Regression SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.761527 R Square 0.579924 Adjusted R 0.474905 Standard E 401.4594 Observatio 6 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total



1 4 5



Coefficients Intercept -448665 X Variable 225.5143



SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.317343 R Square 0.100706



4



Adjusted R-0.124117 Standard E 1494.572 Observatio 6 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total



1 4 5



Coefficients Intercept 500810.8 X Variable -239.1143



d. Interprete Trend Mechanical sebesar 225,5143 Trend Electrical sebesar -239,114 e. Forecasting Y1 = -448665 + 225,5143X1 Y2 = 500810,8 - 239,114X2 Y1(2013) 5295.286 Y2 (2013) 19474.32



No 2 Year 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008



Voting Age Population 99929 104515 109672 114090 120285 140777 152308 163945 173995 181956 189524 196928 207884 220377 229945



Woted for President 61551 62027 68838 70645 73212 77719 81556 86515 92653 91595 104425 96278 105397 122349 131407



% Voting 61.59473 59.34746 62.76716 61.92041 60.86544 55.20717 53.54676 52.77075 53.25038 50.33909 55.09856 48.88995 50.69991 55.51804 57.14714



a. Voter Participation Rate 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0



2



b. Describe the trend



4



Trend dari tahun ke tahun m c. Regression SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.686837 R Square 0.471745 Adjusted R 0.43111 Standard E 3.400928 Observatio 15 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total



1 13 14



Coefficients Intercept 398.72 Year -0.173126



d. Regresi Linear Lebih Mewakili Data e. Y = 398,72 - 0,17313X Y(2012) 50.39084 f. Aktual Voter Rate



No. 3 Month Jan Feb Mar



2005 816 804 794



2006 844 834 826



2007 885 876 873



2008 962 953 947



2009 969 943 923



Apr Mei Jun Jul Agu Sep Okt Nov Des Seasonal



803 802 808 808 816 819 820 833 857 2445



832 840 840 843 853 856 859 876 900 2550.75



879 889 896 902 916 920 930 947 973 2721.5



952 954 960 966 974 973 969 975 989 2893.5



917 910 905 904 902 893 887 884 894 2732.75



d. Peramalan memil



X 0.77 3.16 6.79 2.64 3.16 1.03 1.83 1.23 1.82 7.54 5.08 8.45 4.86 7.89 0.43 6.44 1.6 2.56 9.1 5.05 5.41 7.03 2.83 3.79 3.13 9.56 9.07 9.18 6.22



X1 9.98 9.44 3.18 1.82 8.83 0.18 6.86 9.62 9.35 5.25 5.8 8.69 6.06 0.37 0.21 1.03 6.17 2.92 0.06 6.1 6.96 3.32 9.16 9.19 4.86 1.39 9.92 3.45 0.95



X2 2.92 6.62 0.02 3.62 0.63 3.17 7.83 5.54 8.63 6.37 8.55 0.11 6.52 8.64 7.21 7.45 8.97 3.12 7.1 0.1 3.66 2.46 9.59 5.52 1.64 7.29 0.49 6.02 9.07



Y 41.91 25.5 27.63 3.88 40.42 -5.58 15.64 27.71 20.68 19.68 5.43 49.57 19.6 -20.18 -23.15 -14.76 9.54 4.8 -9.9 32.25 29.23 16.25 14.86 29.18 20.51 -5.36 59.2 3.37 -16.24



No. 4 X X1 X2 Y



No. 5 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Standard E Observatio ANOVA Regression Residual Total Coefficients Intercept X X1 X2



Y = 0,72812 + 1,050803X + 4



Y = 0,72812 + 1,050803(5) +



No. 6 Variasi 83% No. 7 Variasi



Mechanical Electronic



2



3



4



5



6



e the trend a menunjukan nilai positif.



SS MS F Significance F 889992.1 889992.1 5.522082 0.078522979 644678.7 161169.7 1534671 Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0% 192654.1 -2.328863 0.080352 -983558.7482 86228.56 -983559 86228.56 95.96716 2.349911 0.078523 -40.93326569 491.9618 -40.93327 491.9618



SS MS F Significance F 1000574 1000574 0.447935 0.5399652814 8934985 2233746 9935559 Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0% 717222 0.698265 0.523476 -1490516.772 2492138 -1490517 2492138 357.2711 -0.66928 0.539965 -1231.057904 752.8293 -1231.058 752.8293



chanical sebesar 225,5143 ctrical sebesar -239,114 Tahun 2009 terdapat anomali pada trend



665 + 225,5143X1 10,8 - 239,114X2



r Participation Rate



0



2



escribe the trend



4



6



8



10



12



14



16



Trend dari tahun ke tahun mengalami penurunan.



SS MS F Significance F 134.277 134.277 11.60932 0.0046767629 150.362 11.56631 284.639 Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0% 100.6098 3.963035 0.001621 181.3658114 616.0742 181.3658 616.0742 0.050811 -3.407246 0.004677 -0.282896477 -0.063355 -0.282896 -0.063355



Linear Lebih Mewakili Data



,72 - 0,17313X



57.30%



2010 868 845 828



a. Plot Data 2500



2000



1500



2500



820 819 817 816 816 807 803 808 827 2468.5



2000



1500



1000



500



0 Month Jan



Feb



Mar



Apr



Mei



Jun



Jul



Agu



Sep



Okt



Nov



Des



b. Seasonal Data Season 1 2 3 4



2005 2414 2401 2399 2413



2006 2504 2492 2498 2512



2007 2634 2628 2641 2664



2008 2862 2852 2853 2866



2009 2835 2783 2750 2732



2010 2541 2493 2467 2456



Season 1 2 3 4



2005 D D D D



2006 D D D D



2007 D D D D



2008 D D D D



2009 D



2010 D D



c. Most borrow Month Nominal Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Agu Sep Okt Nov Des



Most 5344 5255 5191 5203 5214 5226 5239 5277 5268 5268 5323 5440



d. Peramalan memiliki kesulitan karena data bersifat cross.



5440 Desember



X



X1 X2 1 -0.26659 1 -0.097265 -0.188248 1 -0.022011 0.850562 -0.634663



Y



1



SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics 0.988031 0.976206 0.97335 3.414581 29



df



SS MS F Significance F 3 11958.63 3986.209 341.88902844 2.064E-20 25 291.4841 11.65937 28 12250.11



Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0% 0.72812 2.325095 0.313157 0.75675892 -4.060502 5.516742 -4.060502 5.516742 1.050803 0.233464 4.500926 0.0001358637 0.569975 1.53163 0.569975 1.53163 4.788775 0.196317 24.39309 5.971E-19 4.384453 5.193097 4.384453 5.193097 -3.142336 0.212756 -14.76966 7.436072E-14 -3.580516 -2.704157 -3.580516 -2.704157



Y = 0,72812 + 1,050803X + 4,788775X1 - 3,14234X2 Y = 0,72812 + 1,050803(5) + 4,788775(5) - 3,14234(5) = 14,21



131.0719 108.7897



129.7612