Yola - Lista - Valentina - 2006544840 - Causal Loop Diagram Casess Assignment Mid Term [PDF]

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CLD Cases Assignment Mid-Terms



OLEH : Nama



: YOLA LISTA VALENTINA



NPM



: 2006544840



Mata Kuliah



: Berpikir Sistem



UNIVERSITAS INDONESIA DEPARTEMEN TEKNIK INDUSTRI TA 2020/2021



Fish Bank Model Below you find a description of a very simple fisheries model, also known as the basic Fish Banks model. The two main variables in a fisheries model are fish and ships. Suppose the number of fish only increases through the fish hatch rate and decreases both through the fish death rate and the total catch per year. Suppose that the fish hatch rate equals the fish times the hatch fraction. The fish death rate is equal to the death fraction times the fish. The death fraction is a function of the carrying capacity and the number of Fish. The total catch per year depends on the number of ships and the annual catch per ship which is a function of the fish density. The density is defined as the amount of fish in the fishing area divided by the area. Suppose that the number of Ships increases via the ship building rate which is a function of the investment costs per ship, annual profits and fraction reinvested. The annual profits are calculated as the revenues minus the costs. Assume that the revenues equal the total catch per year times the fish price and that the costs equal the unit ship operating costs times the number of ships. 



Generic Steps 1. Identifikasi (Varibel atau Konstan) Nomer Variabel 1 Jumlah Ikan 2 Penetasan Ikan 3 Kematian Ikan 4 Jumlah Tangkapan Per Tahun 5 Jumlah Kapal 6 Kepadatan Ikan 7 Tarif Pembangunan Kapal 8 Tangkapan Tahunan Per Kapal 9 Keuntungan Tahunan 10 Pendapatan 11 Biaya 12 Harga Ikan 13 Biaya Operasional Unit Kapal 14 Fraksi Kematian 15 Fraksi Penetasan 16 Biaya Investasi Per Kapal 17 Investasi keuntungan



Konstan 1. Area



2. Identifikasi Hubungan antara 2 variabel Sebab Notasi Tingkat penetasan + Tingkat kematian Tangkapan per tahun + Fraksi Penetasan + Fraksi kematian + Jumlah kapal + Tangkapan tahunan per kapal + Tangkapan tahunan per kapal + Jumlah Ikan di area + Tariff pembangunan kapal Tariff pembangunan kapal + Keuntungan tahunan + Biaya Pendapatan + Tangkapan per tahun + Harga ikan + Biaya operasional per unit kapal + Jumlah kapal + 



The List Extension Method



Akibat Jumlah Ikan Jumlah ikan Jumlah ikan Tingkat penetasan Tingkat kematian tangkapan per tahun tangkapan per tahun Kepadatan Ikan Kepadatan Ikan Jumlah kapal Biaya investasi per kapal Investasi keuntungan Keuntungan tahunan Keuntungan tahunan Pendapatan Pendapatan Biaya Biaya







The List Extension Method to CLD



Picture 1. Causal Loop Diagram of Fish Bank



Berikut beberapa hal yang dapat dipelajari dari CLD Fish Bank diatas, yaitu : 1. Loop R1 dan B1 (Populasi Ikan ) : Populasi adalah kelompok ikan yang hidup di daerah tertentu pada waktu tertentu, se-dangkan Jumlah Ikan adalah menggambarkan kelompok ikan yang menempati perairan tertentu dan mempu-nyai pola migrasi, serta daerah pemisahan. Jumlah ikan menggambarkan popolasi ikan berdasarkan tingkat kematian dan tingkat penetasan yang dikelompokkan berdasarkan fraksi penetasan dan fraksi kematian. Dengan tingkat penetasan yang positif maka semakin meningkatkan juga jumlah ikan, namun sebaliknya tingkat kematian yang positif mengakibatkan semakin menurunnya jumlah ikan. Tingkat kematian dan tingkat penetasan dapat digolongkan melalui fraksi kematian dan fraksi penetasan “Tingkat penetasan dan tingkat kematian menjadi hubungan yang penting terhadap jumlah Ikan “ 2. Loop R2 (Jumlah tangkapan pertahun) : Potensi jumlah tangkapan ikan pertahun dipengaruhi oleh jumlah kapal dan tangkapan tahunan per kapal. Semakin meningkat jumlah kapal, semakin meningkat pula jumlah tangkapan tahunan perkapal sehingga secara menyeluruh mengakibatkan peningkatan potensi jumlah tangkapan ikan pertahun. 3. Loop R3 (Biaya Operasional) : Biaya operasional adalah semua biaya yang dikeluarkan dalam pengoperasian kapal, antara lain biaya operasi langsung yaitu biaya yang berkaitan langsung dengan produksi jasa yang dihasilkan. Sedangkan biaya operasional tidak langsung yaitu biaya yang secara tidak langsung berhubungan dengan produk jasa yang dihasilkan. Semakin tinggi biaya operasional kapal maka semakin tinggi biaya yang mencakup biaya investasi per kapal, tarif pembangunan kapal dan juga jumlah kapal. 4. Loop R4 (Tingkat Pendapatan) : Tingkat pendapatan dipengaruhi oleh harga ikan, Biaya dan tangkapan tahunan perkapal. Harga ikan berpengaruh secara positif atau negative sesuai keadaan yang mempengaruhi yaitu keadaan kepadatan ikan. 5. Loop B2 (Laju Harga Ikan) : Semakin tinggi jumlah ikan di area maka semakin tinggi kepadatan ikan, semakin tinggi kepadatan ikan maka semakin rendah harga ikan 6. Loop B3 (Kepadatan Ikan) : Peningkatan kepadatan akan diikuti dengan penurunan pertumbuhan sehingga pada kepadatan tertentu pertumbuhan akan terhenti. Kepadatan ikan dipengaruhi oleh jumlah ikan di area dan tangkapan tahunan per kapal, kepadatan ikan sendiri mempengaruhi harga ikan Untuk memperoleh hasil yang



optimal, peningkatan kepadatan harus juga diikuti dengan peningkatan daya dukung lingkungan dan pertumbuhan ikan. 7. Loop B4 (Laju keuntungan tahunan) : Pendapatan dan biaya bergerak secara bertolak belakang terhadap pengaruhnya terhadap keuntungan tahunan. Semakin tinggi keuntungan tahunan maka semakin tinggi investasi keuntungan yang dilakukan. 



In case of undesirable conclusions, change the diagrams to turn undesirable into desirable. 1. Kesimpulan yang tidak diinginkan pada model penyimpanan ikan ini yaitu semakin menipis potensi ikan hingga mencapai batas minimum kebutuhan ketersediaan ikan. Untuk mengatasi keadaan yang tidak diinginkan dibutuhkan pengendalian dengan menambahkan beberapa variabel yaitu jumlah tangkapan yang diperbolehkan, pengelolaan pertumbuhan ikan dan daya dukung lingkungan. 2. Variabel tambahan “Jumlah tangkapan yang diperbolehkan” : Guna menjaga keberlanjutan stok ikan maka dibutuhkan jumlah tangkapan yang diperbolehkan (JTB).



Dengan



penambahan



variabel



ini



dibutuhkan



penghubung



sebagai



penyeimbang (loop B5) yaitu tangkapan tahunan perkapal dan tangkapan pertahun sehingga dapat mempengaruhi secara positif Jumlah ikan sebagai langkah menjaga ketersediaan ikan. 3. Variabel tambahan “pertumbuhan ikan” : pengelolaan pertumbuhan (Loop B6) dengan dikelolanya secara baik pertumbuhan ikan akan meningkatkan tingkat penetasan ikan dan menjaga keseimbangan fraksi penetasan. 4. Variabel tambahan “daya dukung lingkungan” : daya dukung lingkungan (Loop B7) berhubungan juga dengan pertumbuhan ikan dan fraksi kematian sehingga dapat dilakukan pengendalian yang dapat mempengaruhi secara positif dan keberlanjutan ketersediaan ikan.



Picture 2. Causal Loop Diagram of Fish Bank with Desirable Conclusion



Housing Policies



Real estate demand in densely populated urban areas with sufficient land to extend is often rather price sensitive: declining property prices for instance caused by relative oversupply, i.e. real supply exceeding real estate demand, results in rapid demand rises. Construction companies often initiate new projects based on the demand for properties. Increased demand leads to new projects being initiated. Real estate construction projects are often completed with relatively long delays of about 2-3 years. Many construction companies tend to operate in these areas. And they are mostly unaware or do not keep track of construction projects in. 1. Make a CLD of this description. 2. What kind of dynamics would you expect to see in property prices? 3. What would be an adequate strategy of a smart construction company?



1. Causal Loop Diagram Of Housing Policies



Picture 1. Causal Loop Diagram of House Policies



2. What kind of dynamics would you expect to see in property prices ? 3.5



Economic Dynamics



3



3



2.5 2



2



1.5 1 0.5



1



0.5



0



Price 1







Price 2 Price 3 Property Price



Price 4



Property price dynamics should be exponential with economic dynamics growth by controlling the availability of property, which can be done by conducting market surveys or demand surveys. market surveys are conducted with a focus on location, population, needs, income and lifestyle.







In the dimension of location a person will consider a suitable place to live with Its stage and its life cycle, location in this context are closely related to distance from work.







The property dimension relates to the aspirations of an individual or a group of people regarding the type and type of house desired according to their income and life cycle. In contrast to the dimension of the life cycle, this discusses the stages a person begins to take in their independent life, where all their necessities of life are borne by their own income. The income dimension is related to the size of a person's income which is multiplied by the length of stay in a city



3. What would be an adequate strategy of a smart construction company? 



Construction companies in carrying out activities his business should have a useful strategy for maintain and develop their business. Price and the quality of the resulting project is a factor which must be considered. Besides that, the construction company also continues to maintain its punctuality in project work so that consumers do not feel disappointed and gave his trust to the company.







Players in the construction industry must master technology 4.0 as a way to become a good competency medium and be able to compete with related industry players in the regional or global area.







Material supplier who is able to provide prices which is lower than other suppliers however proven quality and using tools heavy in project work. by controlling the supplier's price pricelist, choose use a supplier with a lower price. This matter certainly will ease the operational burden and can provide affordable prices without compromising profit the company wants. Besides, use human resources who are competent in their fields of course will create a project produced by the company be quality and in accordance with the wishes consumer.



Picture 2. Causal Loop Diagram of House Policies with Price Dynamics and Smart Construction Company



A Traditional Bank Run A traditional bank run starts when (correct or incorrect) information about potential problems at a bank leads to fear of a bank failure. More fear leads to a higher tendency to withdraw personal savings. An increase of withdrawals leads to a decrease of the perceived solvency of the bank which leads to more fear of a bank failure. An increase of withdrawals also leads to a decrease of liquid bank reserves and hence to a lower liquidity of the bank. Banks then need to turn more and more illiquid assets into liquid assets (money) to have sufficient liquid assets to pay for (future) withdrawals. Due to the speed required to liquidate illiquid assets, huge losses are often made, resulting in a reduction of the solvency of the bank. The lower the solvency of the bank, the lower the perceived solvency of the bank, which leads to more fear of a bank failure. Weak or uncertain economic conditions result in more fear and lower perceived solvency. 1. Make a causal loop diagram of this description. This causal loop diagram should be similar to the ones described in (Richardson 1991; MacDonald 2002). How many feedback loops are there? What is their polarity?



Picture 1. Causal Loop Diagram of Traditional Bank Run







Feedback loops R1 : More fear leads to a higher tendency to withdraw personal savings. An increase of withdrawals leads to a decrease of the perceived solvency of the bank which leads to more fear of a bank failure.







Feedback loops B1 : An increase of withdrawals also leads to a decrease of liquid bank reserves and hence to a lower liquidity of the bank. Banks then need to turn more and more illiquid assets into liquid assets (money) to have sufficient liquid assets to pay for (future) withdrawals.







Feedback loops B2 : An increase of withdrawals also leads to a decrease of liquid bank reserves and hence to a lower liquidity of the bank. Due to the speed required to liquidate illiquid assets, huge losses are often made, resulting in a reduction of the solvency of the bank. The lower the solvency of the bank, the lower the perceived solvency of the bank.



2. What are the possible systems behaviors suggested by this CLD? Shows indeed that the positive liquidity and solvency loops make that the likelihood of a bank failure keeps on increasing –unless actively stopped– until the bank collapses. This could have been expected given the fact that revenues and profits are not generated or added to the asset base here: in this version there is only a reinforcing drain without replenishment.



Picture 2. Systems Behaviors Suggested



Energy Transitions 



Energy Transitions are dynamically complex: they are governed by many feedback effects and long delays. Energy transitions are also deeply uncertain: major uncertainties –related to individuals, particular technologies, the entire system, and hence for policy/decision makers in the energy field– are omnipresent. Energy technologies face many uncertainties and need to overcome many hurdles, even before becoming commercially viable and entering the energy technologies battlefield.







One of these hurdles is the so-called ‘valley of death’. That is, quite often, entrepreneurs and technology developers bring a new technology to the pre-commercial stage, but due to a lack of investments, it does not survive the phase between (subsidized) entrepreneurial technology development and large-scale commercial take-off in which subsidies are (often) forbidden. It is hard to predict which promising technologies will actually make it, and hence, which might possibly become the technologies of the future.







Many self-reinforcing uncertainties influence perceived certainty related to each new technology. The lower the perceived certainty, the higher the perceived risk and the lower the entrepreneurial willingness to acquire knowledge/experiment/lobby/. . . in order to bring a technology to the point where it would be considered a good investment. Resources for actions to reduce uncertainty may actually help to take this hurdle and may lead to more perceived certainty and raise perceptions about the potential success of the technology. This in turn reinforces (intrinsic) entrepreneurial motivation, resulting in more willingness to act. A reduction of the perceived risk and an increase of the entrepreneurial motivation are the preconditions to further the state of development and increase the willingness to invest of entrepreneurs and risk-taking energy companies, which in turn leads to more real investments, contributing to the success of the technology, reinforcing the willingness to invest, etc.



Picture 1. CLD of the Pre-Battlefield Struggle



1. Make a CLD of the pre-battlefield struggle. How many loops are there? What is their polarity? What would be appropriate names? A reduction of the perceived risk and an increase of the entrepreneurial motivation are the preconditions to (further the state of development and) increase the willingness of entrepreneurs and risk-taking energy companies to invest, which then leads to (more) real investments, contributing to the technology’s success, reinforcing the willingness to invest. in order to bring a technology to the energy technologies battlefield, the reinforcing activitycertainty loop needs to be activated first, after which the reinforcing action-motivation loop needs to kick in, activating the reinforcing investment-motivation loop, which should lead to the activation of the reinforcing investment-certainty loop. Only then may the technology reach the technologies battlefield. Entrepreneurs and technology developers bring a new technology to the precommercial stage, but due to a lack of investments, it does not survive this so-called ‘valley of death’ – the phase between (subsidized) entrepreneurial technology development and large-scale commercial take-off in which subsidies are (often) forbidden. It is hard to predict which promising technologies will actually make it, and hence, which might possibly become the technologies of the future. 1. Research and development input loop (B1) 2. Reinforcing investment - motivation loop (R1) 3. Reinforcing action – motivation loop (R2) 4. Reinforcing activity-certainly loop (R3) 5. Reinforcing investment certainly loop (R4) 6. Reinforcing Risk – Policies loop (R5) 7. Reinforcing Policies –renewable loop (R6)



2. What policy recommendations could be derived from this CLD? a. Support package comprises energy support b. Feed-in tariff to compensate for the difference in costs alternative fuels c. Feed-in tariff for d. Electricity tariffs which vary hour by hour e. Market-based feed-in tariff scheme f. Investments related to the use of pellets in renovated buildings will be subsidized with investment g. Small hydropower is promoted by means of the existing investment support scheme h. Market-based feed-in tariff scheme funded from the state budget i.



After surviving the valley of death, technologies enter –from a technologies point of view– the technology battle field. The outcomes of the battle is also uncertain and impossible to predict. But even though the outcomes of the energy technologies battle may be unpredictable, the plausible dynamics may be ‘explorable’ by explicitly focussing on these uncertainties.



j.



the technology reach the technologies battlefield. The Causal Loop Diagram points out crucial prerequisites to get there: (i) entrepreneurs need to be intrinsically motivated; (ii) (perceived) uncertainties and risks need to be reduced; (iii) sufficient resources for actions to reduce uncertainties need to be (made) available; (iv) administrative/bureaucratic delays need to be avoided or kept to a minimum; (v) sufficient resources for initial investments need to be (made) available.